In part 1 of these series I discussed the concept of Naive Intervention as a response to purely human need of causal narratives, while no such thing exists outside our brain. In part 2 I discussed the priority of survival…
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Naive Intervention Part 2: It is a Matter of Survival, not Efficiency!
In Part 1 of this series I covered the problem that humans grossly overestimate our human rational capability and the power of non-emotional narrative in the form of theories and models. In this post on risk assessment and decision making I continue to quote freely from…
Tagged with: adaptive marekt hypothesis, Anti-fragile, complexity, efficient market hypthesis, Emanuel Derman, human microbiome, models behaving badly, naive intervention, Nassim Taleb, russel ackoff, system thinking, too-large-to-fail
Posted in Business Intelligence, Complexity, Executives, Predictive Analysis
Posted in Business Intelligence, Complexity, Executives, Predictive Analysis
Naive Intervention – Part 1: From Antifragile to Models Behaving Badly
‘Naive Intervention’ is a term used by Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) in his recent book ‘Antifragile – Things that Gain from Disorder.’ Taleb explains that in business and economy progress comes from natural dynamics and not from naive intervention. He uses…
Sapere Aude – An Age of Enlightenment for Business?
A few weeks ago Keith Swenson asked me if our current age has been considered or named in the sense of a further step in our human evolution, much as it happened during The Enlightenment or The Age of Reason.…
Process Maturity versus The Real World of the Higgs Boson
A lot has been written about process maturity. The different approaches proposed have as highest rating the ‘Optimized Stage’ of maturity, where continuous process improvement is enabled by feedback and by applying innovative ideas in an agile manner. Sounds good,…
Tagged with: Business Architecture, Process maturity, process models
Posted in BPM, Business Architecture, Business Strategy, Complexity, Process Mining
Posted in BPM, Business Architecture, Business Strategy, Complexity, Process Mining
Social BPM Methodology: The Triple Oxymoron
I consider ‘Social-BPM’ as a combination of Social and BPM software an oxymoron. Social networking and BPM automation are at opposite ends of the human interaction spectrum. BPM flowcharts are decomposed complicated structures and social networks are complex adaptive systems.…
Tagged with: ACM, BPM methodology, complexity, Harvard Business Review, Social BPM, social networks
Posted in Adaptive Case Management, BPM, Business Strategy, Complexity, Executives
Posted in Adaptive Case Management, BPM, Business Strategy, Complexity, Executives
Agile and Scrum versus the God Complex
Let’s Fire the MBA Bean Counters For over ten years I have been questioning the viability of rigid process management methodologies and was ridiculed for ‘not getting it’. I have presented the scientific evidence around complex adaptive systems, the benefits…
Tagged with: ACM, Agile, Alistair Cockburn, Bob Lutz, BPM, Charles Darwin, Jay Elridge, Jeff Sutherland, Ken Schwaber, MBA, Mike Beedle, process management, Srcum, Stephen Denning, Stephen Gould, Stuart Kauffman, Tim Harford
Posted in Adaptive Case Management, Business Strategy, Complexity, Economy, Executives
Posted in Adaptive Case Management, Business Strategy, Complexity, Economy, Executives
